CDS and sovereign debt
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This has been a revival in the bottom, rather than the top, line. According to Morgan Stanley, non-financial stocks in the S&P 500 beat third-quarter earnings growth estimates by an average nine percentage points. But the companies’ sales fell around a point shy of forecasts. A similar pattern was seen in Europe.
Either they are correct in assessing that the economy is still fragile, in which case corporate profits will ultimately disappoint. Or they are underestimating the strength of the recovery, in which case inflationary pressures will start to emerge (and bond yields will rise sharply). Markets will have a tricky time navigating between this Scylla and Charybdis in 2010.
Buttonwood: Something’s gotta give | The EconomistChina has 98 per cent of REE production, leading the late Deng Xiaoping to remark that “the Middle East has oil, but China has rare earths
The world need not assume that China will press its monopoly economically or militarily, but remaining oblivious to the possibility is foolish, no matter how obscure or hard to pronounce these substances are. As Woody Allen once said: “Paranoia is knowing all the facts.”
FT.com / Lex / Energy, utilities & mining - Rare earth elementsWhat is the definition of optimism? A Japanese equity fund manager ironing five shirts on a Sunday evening. No other market has the capacity to disappoint – or threaten jobs – quite like it.
Equities around the world have soared on the understanding that, should economies stay sluggish, governments will not raise interest rates. If growth picks up, meanwhile, the conclusion stays the same: buy stocks. That dumb but effective strategy has worked everywhere except in Japan – the only developed market in negative territory in the year to date.
FT.com / Lex / Macroeconomics & markets - Japan, deflating